Forrester’s 2026 Technology & Security Predictions reveal a sector in the midst of a mid-correction: AI hype is colliding with fiscal reality, quantum threats are no longer theoretical, and the race to hire developers just got a lot harder.
The era of unchecked AI optimism is over. Forrester Research’s 2026 Predictions report for Technology and Security lays out a stark, data-backed picture of an industry being forced to reconcile ambition with accountability — and the executives caught in the middle are CIOs, CISOs, and CFOs who are now demanding proof of every dollar spent.
The AI Rescue Problem
One of the report’s most pointed predictions: a quarter of CIOs will be asked to bail out business-led AI failures within their own organizations. Agentic AI systems — designed to automate tasks and empower employees — are stumbling under the weight of adoption lags and compounding accuracy errors. Already, 39% of AI decision-makers say their CIO or CTO leads AI technology strategy, while only 21% lead actual business strategy. Forrester expects those figures to double as CEOs realize that tech leaders, not business units, are best placed to govern AI deployments responsibly. The message to CIOs is clear: prepare your governance frameworks now, before a high-profile failure forces the issue.
The ROI Reckoning
Forrester’s numbers on AI returns are sobering. Only 15% of AI decision-makers reported an EBITDA lift in the past twelve months, and fewer than one-third can tie AI’s value to actual profit-and-loss changes. Yet expectations remain sky-high — 85% of C-level executives expect a positive return within three years. The resulting tension will force CFOs deeper into AI investment decisions, slow production deployments, and decimate proofs of concept. Forrester predicts enterprises will defer 25% of their planned AI spend into 2027. For vendors who have oversold capabilities, a market correction looms.
“The disconnect between inflated AI vendor promises and actual enterprise value will force a market correction.”
Neoclouds Rise, Hyperscalers Sweat
Not all the news spells doom. A quieter infrastructure revolution is underway. GPU-first cloud providers — so-called neoclouds like CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, and Vultr — are projected to collectively capture $20 billion in revenue in 2026, directly eroding the dominance of hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud in the generative AI space. Backed by NVIDIA chips and deep VC funding, Neoclouds are expanding into Europe and Asia, integrating more deeply into enterprise AI stacks, and forcing hyperscalers to rethink their agentic strategies fundamentally.
Hiring Just Got Twice as Hard
Developer hiring is entering a paradox. As organizations lean on AI-assisted coding and pair it with senior developers, junior roles are evaporating — yet demand for architects with strong systems knowledge is intensifying. Meanwhile, job-seeking developers are automating their own applications using AI, overwhelming HR departments. Verification slows. Offers stall. Forrester’s stark prediction: the time to fill developer positions will double. Companies are advised not to abandon entry-level pipelines, but to invest in AI-enhanced upskilling and equip recruiters with their own AI tools.
Quantum Is No Longer “Someday”
For security leaders, the most urgent prediction may be the rise of quantum cryptography. Forrester estimates that commercial quantum computers could break current asymmetric encryption standards within a decade — or sooner. NIST guidance already mandates that RSA and ECC support will be deprecated by 2030 and fully disallowed by 2035. In response, quantum security spending is forecast to exceed 5% of total IT security budgets this year, driven by migration planning, cryptographic library replacements, and discovery tools. The report’s bottom line is unambiguous: this is no longer a concern exclusive to banks and critical infrastructure. Every CISO must act now.