Gartner’s 2025 Hype Cycle identifies Sovereign AI and AI agents as the top technologies set to transform government services within the next five years. Other emerging areas like prompt engineering and machine customers will also reshape how governments deliver, regulate, and scale AI-driven solutions.
Gartner has identified Sovereign AI and AI agents as the top technologies shaping government adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Both have reached the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” in the 2025 Gartner Hype Cycle for Government Services, signaling strong interest but also challenges in achieving widespread, effective use.
The Hype Cycle provides a framework for understanding how emerging technologies evolve over time, from early excitement to practical application. For public sector leaders, this insight is particularly relevant as they balance citizen expectations, limited resources, and growing geopolitical pressures.
Sovereign AI represents government-led efforts to build independent AI capabilities that align with national priorities. By 2028, Gartner predicts that 65% of governments will adopt sovereignty requirements to ensure independence from outside regulatory influence and strengthen control over AI applications.
AI agents, meanwhile, are software systems capable of making decisions and carrying out tasks with limited human involvement. They can be used to interpret laws, process applications, or automate routine services. Gartner forecasts that by 2029, 60% of government agencies will use AI agents to handle more than half of their citizen-facing transactions, compared to less than 10% today.
Beyond these leading technologies, Gartner highlights prompt engineering the practice of crafting precise instructions to guide generative AI as a skill governments must develop. Well-designed prompts can improve performance and reliability, but require investment in training and reusable prompt libraries.
Another long-term factor is machine customers: internet-connected devices that transact on behalf of individuals or organizations. Gartner expects their numbers to grow from three billion today to eight billion by 2030. This shift will force governments to rethink regulation, authentication, and service delivery, with implications for taxation, accountability, and ethics.
Dean Lacheca, VP Analyst at Gartner, emphasized that governments need a phased approach starting with pilot projects and roadmaps to ensure AI adoption strengthens trust and service delivery.
Gartner will further explore these trends at its upcoming IT Symposium/Xpo events worldwide, where leaders will discuss how AI is reshaping digital transformation in the public sector.